I think it's a combination of heat soak - the filter, filter head, and fuel lines in the engine bay absorbing heat from the engine, particular at idle in park with no air flow, and also for at least a couple of hours after shutdown - and the hot return fuel being pumped back to the tank.
And yes, if you assuming a constant heat transfer rate (ie, driving at a steady speed on a long trip), you're going to continue dumping more heat into a decreasing amount of fuel in the tank. And as the fuel being supplied from the tank goes up in tenperature, the fuel being returned to the tank is going to get hotter as well.
The other day, Ranger1 went for a trip when he was just above 1/4 tank, and stopped to fill up after 45 miles. He left the engine running, and before filling up hooked up to the fuel temp sensor to see what fuel temp was. The fuel being supplied from the tank registered 120 F at the filter!
After only 45 miles of local driving, enough heat had been transferred into the fuel and fuel tank, to raise the temp of the fuel in the tank nearly 40 F.
And we have an electric fuel heater for WHAT reason?
After he filled the tank, he noticed the engine sounded much quieter. He checked the fuel temp sensor again. With a full tank of relatively cold fuel, fuel temp at the filter now registered 90 F. Dumping in 18 gallons of cold fuel had absorbed enough heat to lower the fuel temp by 30 F.
Based on what I saw on a 50 mile trip a couple of weeks ago, where I checked temps before, during, and after with an infared thermometer, I'd estimate the heat transfer rate to be at least 1500 BTU/hour into the fuel tank.
This is based on a full tank of 20 gallons, vehicle parked for 3 days and at ambient of 85 F, specific heat capacity of #2 diesel being 0.5 BTU/lbm-degF, density of #2 diesel approximately 7.25 lbs/gallon, 20 F rise in temp measured on the surface of the tank, after a 50 mile round trip of approximately 1 hour driving time with a 45 minute stop between legs.
Given that during the 45 minute stop the fuel tank may have given up some of it's heat, the actual heat transfer rate may be higher than what I calculated above.
I know that during the 45 minute stop, the fuel filter and head had heat soaked from 110 F (measured while still idling just after I parked at my destination) to nearly 135 F before I started it for my return trip. After starting the engine and letting it idle for 2 minutes, fuel from the tank going thru the filter had dropped this temp back down to 115 F.
Now you know why I busted my rear last week and put insulation sleeving on the fuel lines and filter in the engine bay, and managed to get a fuel cooler installed in the return line. I've though of the heat shield idea as well, at least for the filter head, and I'm going to try rigging one up when I get the chance.