LOST JEEPS
http://www.lostjeeps.com/forum/phpBB3/

Diesel - my 2008 prediction
http://www.lostjeeps.com/forum/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8440		 Page 1 of 5
Author:  railguy [ Fri May 12, 2006 11:11 am ]
Post subject:  Diesel - my 2008 prediction
As a CRD owner, I have more than a passing interest in what is going to happen to the diesel engine in the American driving scene in the next few years. The news that the CRD will not be sold in 2007 is sad. However, here is my prediction for 2008 (by the way, I am acquainted with people who very definitely have their finger on the pulse of the energy industry--they are worried):

By 2008, Americans will look at $3.00/gal. fuel with nostalgia. Prices of $4.00, even $5.00 per gallon or more, will be common. "Stagflation," probably worse than what occurred in the late 1970's, with high interest rates, inflation, and declining employment will be a real problem. New auto sales, particularly large vehicles, 4WD's, and SUV's will practically collapse. Used gas-guzzlers will flood the used auto market. At least one of the remaining US automakers will head toward bankruptcy. Some of the more marginal foreign manufacturers will abandon the US market.

Both the auto manufacturers and the general public will pressure the Feds (and states) to relax the NOx standards and particulate standards for the only powerplant (outside of the hybrids) that can provide an immediate boost to fleet fuel economy--the diesel. The Japanese manufacturers will immediately sieze the opportunity and will begin manufacturing and/or importing diesel models that they have sold overseas for years. They will probably take the lead in selling diesel hybrids, as well. As usual, the American manufacturers will be playing catchup, though all 3 (I'm including DC here as "American", though that is obviously very debatable) already sell diesel models elsewhere in the world.

I would expect to see the return of a diesel Liberty (or a diesel in whatever its replacement might be), and a diesel Wrangler, Compass and Patriot. The GC and Commander will probably die for lack of sales, along with most all other full-size, and most mid-size gasoline-powered SUV's. The few 4WD SUV's that will be sold will likely be diesel-powered, and most will be sold to people who will use them for their intended purpose--"Boulevard" 4-wheelers will disappear.

Meanwhile, I will be driving my CRD--probably fewer miles, and not as a daily driver (though I'm not using for that today, anyway).

My $.02--just one guy's prediction . . .
Author:  midwest [ Fri May 12, 2006 12:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hold on now railguy. Some of your dire predictions may come true, but fuel prices in the $5 plus range are simply not sustainable. At that price people will use LESS, which will lower prices. In addition, a world wide recession would drop oil consumption to the floor and prices would plummet quickly.

Now, let's talk China,,,,,,,they are in for some serious growing pains. Do you think their people are going to be willing to work for pennies forever?? NO!! The Reds over there are going to have an increasingly hard time keeping their thumb on the huge population.

And the secret about oil,,,,,it's everywhere!!! Huge amounts on our continental shelf, a sea of it under the gulf of mexico. It may be a little harder to get to, but it is there. Look at Cuba, they are going to start drilling in the Florida Straits! Cuba!

And the biggest shocker of all????Oil does not come from dinosaurs! We are currently drilling at depts over 1 mile below the gulf floor. How many plants and animals lived down there??? Incidentally, you only find this "dino" theory in america, nobody else in the world teaches it to their kids. Oil comes from deep in the earth, and "tapped out" fields have regenerated themselves over time. Google oil and read the many articles on the subject. If the earth can make diamonds,,,it can make oil.

I believe it is middle eastern countries and a few in this hemisphere which will be looking back at $3 gas with envy in a few yrs.

Your grandkids' grandkids will be using oil pumped from the ground,,not to mention the HUGE reserves of tar sands in Canada.

In conclusion, America has the means to become energy self sufficient. My plan would be more drilling, more refineries, and lots more powerful, efficient diesel engines!

GOD BLESS THE USA!
Author:  kjfishman [ Fri May 12, 2006 4:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
midwest wrote:
Hold on now railguy.........
In conclusion, America has the means to become energy self sufficient. My plan would be more drilling, more refineries, and lots more powerful, efficient diesel engines!

GOD BLESS THE USA!


Good plan , add Cut backs on welfare and seal the border and you got my vote.
Author:  Hero [ Fri May 12, 2006 4:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
There is no shortage of oil on Earth nor will there most likely ever be, the key thing is being able to refine crude into gasoline, diesel, or any other fuel. In America the problem is that we cannot refine the crude we recieve fast enough to meet up with demand.

The U.S. imports more than enough crude to meet the needs of the country, its just that we do not possess the ability to get it out. Instead of having all these big oil types lying about "needing to explore" for more oil, they need to build some more refineries. I don't think it would be a bad thing for individual states to take care of thier own needs by creating their own refineries and having crude transported to them.

The State of Illinois is pressing an iniative to do that soon enough from what I've heard, it would be much simplier than having to take the product from the refineries along the coasts and truck it all of the states. And on a smaller note, it would help cure the problem of tanker trucks getting highjacked on the highways by people who want to steal the fuels.

I could go into greater depth, I'll just leave it at that for now...
Author:  boxhead [ Fri May 12, 2006 4:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
By 2008, Americans will look at $3.00/gal. fuel with nostalgia. Prices of $4.00, even $5.00 per gallon or more, will be common. "Stagflation," probably worse than what occurred in the late 1970's, with high interest rates, inflation, and declining employment will be a real problem. New auto sales, particularly large vehicles, 4WD's, and SUV's will practically collapse. Used gas-guzzlers will flood the used auto market. At least one of the remaining US automakers will head toward bankruptcy. Some of the more marginal foreign manufacturers will abandon the US market.


This sounds like a line right out of the DNC speaking points documents. :roll:
Author:  oldnavy [ Fri May 12, 2006 4:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hero wrote:
The State of Illinois is pressing an iniative to do that soon enough from what I've heard, it would be much simplier than having to take the product from the refineries along the coasts and truck it all of the states. And on a smaller note, it would help cure the problem of tanker trucks getting highjacked on the highways by people who want to steal the fuels.

I could go into greater depth, I'll just leave it at that for now...
Federal EPA will put the jinx on that idea, at present the time to ground breaking for plant and the cost of the paper work is averaging about 15 years and $20,000,000, so until that can be cleared up and then find locations where the "not in my back yard" crowd will not interfere and make it even more expensive and take longer to build.
Author:  valkraider [ Fri May 12, 2006 6:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
if people don't want something in their backyard, there is usually a good reason... So who's backyard is most important?
Author:  Goglio704 [ Fri May 12, 2006 7:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
Maybe we need to condemn an entire state under emminent domain and put all the undesirable stuff there. :P
Any suggestions?
Author:  Cowcatcher [ Fri May 12, 2006 8:32 pm ]
Post subject: 
Lots of information here from FOX t seems.

Yes we don't have enough refining capacity. No it is not NIMBY it is the oil companies who closed their refineries to drive up prices. The FOX folks and others will tell you that no new refineries have been built since the early 70's but they conveniently leave out the fact that the oil industry closed 50 refineries in the last dozen years to reduce demand and drive up prices. I worked too didn't it.

Of course some will attack me as a left coaster for these comments but they should go ask an ultimate ultra righter, Rev Pat Robertson. The Rev tried to buy a refinery in CA a few years back about two years after it had been awarded as its companies most efficient refinery. Then, just months after the award they tried to close it for being inefficient. When the state pointed out the award the company did a tap dance and then decided it was inefficient because it was too far from the right kind of crude oil, unfortunately it was in the middle of just the right kind of oil field. Finally the bank that was going to finance the purchase for Rev Pat got cold feet.....seems the oil company was a bigger company of the same bank.

Ultimately Rev Pat got brokered out of the deal but the state kept pushing and forced a new sale to keep the refinery open.

We rely too much on crude oil based energy and there is not a single American patriot sitting in a single oil company headquarters or on a single oil company board of trustees and that is true irrespective of your politics.
Author:  Goglio704 [ Fri May 12, 2006 8:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
I consider myself a conservative, but I don't trust big business and it doesn't get much bigger than oil. I just hope biodiesel can make a dent.
Author:  boxhead [ Fri May 12, 2006 9:15 pm ]
Post subject: 
Cowcatcher wrote:
Lots of information here from FOX t seems.

Yes we don't have enough refining capacity. No it is not NIMBY it is the oil companies who closed their refineries to drive up prices. The FOX folks and others will tell you that no new refineries have been built since the early 70's but they conveniently leave out the fact that the oil industry closed 50 refineries in the last dozen years to reduce demand and drive up prices. I worked too didn't it.

Of course some will attack me as a left coaster for these comments but they should go ask an ultimate ultra righter, Rev Pat Robertson. The Rev tried to buy a refinery in CA a few years back about two years after it had been awarded as its companies most efficient refinery. Then, just months after the award they tried to close it for being inefficient. When the state pointed out the award the company did a tap dance and then decided it was inefficient because it was too far from the right kind of crude oil, unfortunately it was in the middle of just the right kind of oil field. Finally the bank that was going to finance the purchase for Rev Pat got cold feet.....seems the oil company was a bigger company of the same bank.

Ultimately Rev Pat got brokered out of the deal but the state kept pushing and forced a new sale to keep the refinery open.

We rely too much on crude oil based energy and there is not a single American patriot sitting in a single oil company headquarters or on a single oil company board of trustees and that is true irrespective of your politics.



Ummmm, assuming you're talking about the refinery near LA, then not exactly true. His company DID buy the refinery. It was shut down in 1995, was 65 years old, and had a horrible record. Everyone and their uncle is fighting his efforts to reopen the refinery.
Author:  oldnavy [ Fri May 12, 2006 9:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
Goglio704 wrote:
Maybe we need to condemn an entire state under emminent domain and put all the undesirable stuff there. :P
Any suggestions?
I vote to condemn CA.
Author:  SethX9 [ Fri May 12, 2006 10:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
"And the biggest shocker of all????Oil does not come from dinosaurs! We are currently drilling at depts over 1 mile below the gulf floor. How many plants and animals lived down there??? Incidentally, you only find this "dino" theory in america, nobody else in the world teaches it to their kids."


The only shocker is that anyone actually believes this ridiculous theory. It's called the "abiotic" or "abiogenic" theory and was cooked up the former Soviet Union when they were in a paper war with the US and the US was getting mid-east countries to flood the market with cheap crude to prevent the USSR from realizing profits from their domestic oil fields. Abiotics has been put to bed by every serious scientific look into the idea. Any first year college student can evaluate the microscopic evidence of the organisms that formed the oil. Magma does not produce hydrocarbons and their chemical makeup is completely different. Magma is lacking in carbon compounds and hydrocarbons are lacking in silica. Oil doesn't ooze up from beneath the mantle. Period.

Of course the US is a country where creationism is often expected to be given the same amount of scientific attention as evolution so perhaps one really shouldn't be shocked by what people can be convinced of. That "'dino' theory" is taught all over the world as the conclusion arrived at after all the evidence available has been evaluated by scientific peer review.

I'd like to see some verifiable evidence, some scientific report that is even entertained by the larger scientific community, of abiotic hydrocarbons in the supply chain. (Good luck with that)

As to your "how many plants and animals lived down there" question: Are you serious? The oceans are full of an overwhelming abundance of life and have been for millions of years. The fact that a mile thick layer of water is sitting on top of an oil reserve is evidence of nothing more than that biotic matter, both in plant form and in the form of the animals that feed on those plants, accumulates on the ocean floor and becomes covered, over time, by the process of deposition.

Here's the real question: Is there enough oil entering the supply chain to support the current or foreseable future given trends in demand and population growth? The answer to that question is 'NO'. 2003 was the first year since the 1920s that not a single new oil field with more than 500 m. barrels was found. It's fairly common knowledge that the oil companies have been cooking the books on the amount of available oil for years. In fact, Shell admitted a few years ago to overstating the amount of reserves by as much as 20%!

And what's this nonsense about oil fields regenerating? Please name one. Oil fields may regenerate but not in your lifetime or the life time of your childrens' children's children.

I'd recommend hitting the local community college and taking a refresher course in geology and organic chemistry.
Author:  Cowcatcher [ Fri May 12, 2006 11:24 pm ]
Post subject: 
boxhead wrote:
Cowcatcher wrote:
Lots of information here from FOX t seems.

Yes we don't have enough refining capacity. No it is not NIMBY it is the oil companies who closed their refineries to drive up prices. The FOX folks and others will tell you that no new refineries have been built since the early 70's but they conveniently leave out the fact that the oil industry closed 50 refineries in the last dozen years to reduce demand and drive up prices. I worked too didn't it.




Ummmm, assuming you're talking about the refinery near LA, then not exactly true. His company DID buy the refinery. It was shut down in 1995, was 65 years old, and had a horrible record. Everyone and their uncle is fighting his efforts to reopen the refinery.


http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/rp/3388.pdf

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/rp/3390.pdf

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/ ... ator+Kerry

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... =printable



http://www.flyingj.com/company/press/refinery.html
Author:  bigiron [ Fri May 12, 2006 11:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
Wow....my 3rd post in this great forum and I'm weighing in on this controversial topic....Oh well. I would just like to reiterate midwest's earlier comments about China. I've seen first hand what's going on there, and it is very predictable. Just like midwest said....the Chinese people are not going to stand for dime-a-day wages forever.....and thanks to the Internet, they are "rebeling" (for lack of a better term) faster than the communist regime ever dreamed. For example, I have worked first hand with 2 Chinese companies....both make similar products. One company pays average wages with average benefits (for China)......their turnover ratio is about 45% and their quality is poor. The other company pays about twice what the first company mentioned pays, and they provide good housing and education. Their turnover ratio is almost zero and their quality is first rate. Believe me....I am Die Hard Patriotic and will by American whenever I can....even if the cost is a little more.....and I truly believe that although we have to deal with China and other similar countries on the basis of necessity at this point in history......that the Chinese people are going to wake up to the advantages of capitalism much faster than we may think. Capitalism is common sense and the companies in China that embrace it first are going to be the most successful. The others will be forced to follow suit.
Author:  SethX9 [ Sat May 13, 2006 12:08 am ]
Post subject: 
bigiron - I agree with you on all but one point: the Chinese woke up to capitalism quite awhile ago. This is all the more reason to be concerned about available sources of energy. A country nearly four times the size of the US is experiencing a boom that is almost unprecedented. And that's just China; that's not talking about India which is twice the size of the US. As their middle class grows so does their demand for energy. There is no way that China and India can sustain the consumptive patterns of the US middle class.
Author:  midwest [ Sat May 13, 2006 12:46 am ]
Post subject: 
When I said we are drilling a mile under the gulf, I meant a mile under the ocean floor,,,,,not just a mile under water. People have been predicting the end of oil ever since oil was first discovered. Do a google search on oil or oil reserves and read all the articles and scientific journals related to the topic. If you (seth) want to believe a animal rolled over and died and then turned to oil (and coal,shale, natural gas, tar sand, ect. ect.) you go for it.

The sky truly is NOT FALLING regarding this issue. You would make a great oil company spokesman. You could travel around scareing people with you dinosaur theory,,,i.e. "There were only so many dinosaures, and they turned into only so much oil,,,,,so we are going to run out soon,,,RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!! Incidently,, I was a business finance major at Nebraska,not a geology major, but I can still read.
Author:  retmil46 [ Sat May 13, 2006 1:02 am ]
Post subject: 
Cowcatcher wrote:
Yes we don't have enough refining capacity. No it is not NIMBY it is the oil companies who closed their refineries to drive up prices. The FOX folks and others will tell you that no new refineries have been built since the early 70's but they conveniently leave out the fact that the oil industry closed 50 refineries in the last dozen years to reduce demand and drive up prices.


Well, well, at least I'm not the only person that remembers that! I can remember a few years back when they showed the actual e-mails between oil company execs on TV, discussing in plain English how best to go about buying up the independent refineries and shut them down to keep supply tight and prices up.

They way overbuilt refinery capacity in the 70's, according to the GAO (yes, I'll admit it, I actually watch C-SPAN every now and then). 2 or 3 successive oil crunches, plus CAFE standards and what conservation measures we did adopt kicking in, kept demand far below what they expected for many years. Even with shutting down 50 refineries, it took until last year and the double whammy of two hurricanes to finally hit the upper limit on refining capacity.

Also according to the GAO, when they investigated why these 50 refineries were shut down, there were no environmental or other concerns that forced their closure. In their words, the only logical reason why they were closed was a conscious business decision to reduce capacity, tighten supply, and drive up prices.

In other words, even our own government admits this was a premeditated business decision to give us the shaft.

Another tidbit from the GAO report - allowing for production costs, the current price of a barrel of oil, and a decent 10% profit, even with $70 a barrel oil the average price of a gallon of gas should be $2.40, not 3 bucks and up.

We're already giving the oil industry somewhere around 30 billion a year in tax credits and government subsidies (your tax dollars at work! :roll: ). And now, after raking in record profits, they're pleading poverty and claiming they only clear 4 or 5 percent profit, and that if we want them to reopen existing or build new refineries, that we need to give them even more tax credits and subsidies.

And some people wonder why one of my vehicles runs on batteries! :shock:
Author:  retmil46 [ Sat May 13, 2006 1:16 am ]
Post subject: 
oldnavy wrote:
Goglio704 wrote:
Maybe we need to condemn an entire state under emminent domain and put all the undesirable stuff there. :P
Any suggestions?
I vote to condemn CA.


SECOND THE MOTION!

Just kidding guys. :D
[/b]
Author:  RFCRD [ Sat May 13, 2006 2:46 am ]
Post subject: 
SethX9 wrote:
bigiron - I agree with you on all but one point: the Chinese woke up to capitalism quite awhile ago. This is all the more reason to be concerned about available sources of energy. A country nearly four times the size of the US is experiencing a boom that is almost unprecedented. And that's just China; that's not talking about India which is twice the size of the US. As their middle class grows so does their demand for energy. There is no way that China and India can sustain the consumptive patterns of the US middle class.

One thing in the whole "Chineese are driving up world oil prices" debate; They wouldn't be doing it if they didn't have the cash. Cash from the US government giving most favored nation trading status and letting them suck the life blood out of US industry. I feel for those like my father who spent his entire military career fighting the cold war trying to contain this idology only to have our government sell out to them in the end. No wonder he's half nuts now.
Page 1 of 5 All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/