CATCRD wrote:
My beef is with how the mainstream media argues about human caused global warming - as if it's a proven fact and to disagree is blasphemy. I'm sorry, that's not how the scientific method works. To frame the argument that way is dangerous.
I agree with you here, but once again as I said, blaming the scientists for how poorly environmental reporting tends to be the popular thing these days, and it gets frustrating to see Al Gore ruin the reputation of the field when people are spending thier lives dedicated to this. My real point here is that just because the spokespeople suck does not mean its a load of bunk. That said, I do agree with you that dissention is the meat of the scientific method, however dissention is not defined by randomly taking potshots from a uninformed position, then declaring victory because someone chose not to respond to that uninformed position(not accusing you of this, btw).
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Temperature swings are commonplace on the time scale of the Earth and I think some people are jumping to early conclusions based on correlation, not causation, on a very limited set of historical data, ice cores and tree rings notwithstanding.
Weather forecasters can't predict within 1 degree what will happen 5 DAYS from now in a specific locale. And I'm going to believe a 50 year forecast for the GLOBE? The system is simply too complex and the variables too numerous and poorly understood for our simulations to be believable to me.
Human biology is far more complex than atmospheric science, and to this day we can't tell you how many things work(especially in terms of hormones and mental processes). That does not mean that we cannot identify toxins, that we cannot predict human health based on environment, behaviour and genetics, that we cannot cure problems and discover what is incurable by current methods. A subject does not have to be understood 100% before predictions can be made and solutions presented. In fact, there are no 'closed fields' in science where all there is to know is known.
I agree that stupid movies like The Day After Tommorrow, and poor presentations like An Inconvenient Truth present the issue as though we know more than we do, but just because they do this does not mean that we know nothing, or that our knowledge is not greater than presented in areas that are more esoteric to the layman, but understandable in the scientific community. Keep this in mind: What is presented in the media in a given field is typically 3-10 years behind what is being done by the scientists at any given time, usually they don't hit the media until results are published. There is no major braking of info going on, no scientists attempting to quell reports as there typically would be if current lab research was starting to poke holes in the theory, if anything they scientists are getting more strident about it, which strongly indicates they think the problem is much more real than what is being presented today publicly.
BTW, your ice core comment actually demonstrates the putting forth of knowledge to imply we know more than we do problem, my significant other was quite suprised to learn a couple years ago when in Australia studying ice cores from Antartica that you can't actually determine CO2 and climate from an ice core, it simply leaves some indicators that can be used to corrolate with cores taken from the ocean floor. In other words, its not as simple as taking a core and measuring CO2 levels as is typically implied, its just a bit of complementary data that allows a scientist to rule out some possibilties, but does not tell them the story itself.
All that said, personally I feel that water shortages are our immediate threat, and that global warming is a factor in only that we should be reducing our output of atmospheric pollutants because that is a wise thing to do, not because I'm worried about rising sea levels.
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Doubt it. It's not fuel in the intake after all. If anything I could see it causing more problems, because the quality of bio is not yet as consistent as petro diesel, and the engine wasn't designed to run on it.
With this I tend to agree, but everyone here thinks I'm crazy, so oh well.